Lexington KY approves data to help determine growth boundary

A new data-driven matrix that will help Lexington determine if it needs to expand its growth boundary moved forward this week after months of delays.

The Lexington-Fayette Urban County Council voted during a Tuesday council work session to move a sustainable growth study, which includes a matrix and data that shows available land for development, to the council’s agenda. The study got a first reading during a Tuesday meeting. A final vote is scheduled for Sept. 8.

During debate on the 2018 Comprehensive Plan, which determines what types of development can go where, the city decided to decouple from the plan the thorny, contentious question of when to move the growth boundary.

To do that, the city wanted a data-driven analysis of vacant land and the city’s long-term needs. Stantec, an engineering consulting firm, was hired in August 2020 to provide that analysis.

Among other things, Stantec looked at current vacant land inside the growth boundary and also did a deep-dive analysis of both past and future housing, commercial, retail and industrial real estate trends to determine future needs.

Next, the Stantec team looked at three different scenarios for how development could occur:

• The first scenario, the most conservative, is based on current development patterns. That means more single-family homes and fewer commercial, industrial and mixed-use spaces. Mixed-use spaces are a combination of retail, residential and/or office space.
• The second scenario follows the guidelines of the 2018 Comprehensive Plan, which encourages more dense development, particularly on the city’s main corridors, such as Nicholasville and Versailles Roads. More dense development typically translates to more apartments and townhouses than single-family homes.
• The third scenario included more dense development and some redevelopment of current properties inside the current growth boundary.

The matrix is not perfect and includes assumptions, Stantec and city officials have cautioned in various public meetings over the past year.

During the Lexington council’s Tuesday work session, Councilman James Brown said the sustainable growth study is only the start of the process. Brown, who chairs the council’s Planning and Public Safety Committee, said the committee voted unanimously in June to approve the matrix.

There have been several tweaks made to the data since the Planning and Public Safety Committee’s June meeting, said Kevin Atkins, chief of development for the city of Lexington. Also during Tuesday’s work session, the council gave initial approval for a $50,000 contract with Stantec to continue to update the data.

Several council members expressed reservations about moving the matrix forward, including Councilman Richard Moloney who voted against the motion.

Councilman Preston Worley said he had concerns but he believed it was time to move the study forward.

“I still have concerns about the level of accuracy of the data and the assumptions made in the report,” Worley said.

Vice Mayor Steve Kay said Tuesday’s council vote only approves the data used in the matrix. It does not approve the framework or when and how the city uses that data to determine if the growth boundary should be moved.

“We are not sending a message that we are done or anything like done,” Kay said. “We have to move forward with the data part of it.”

In addition, Kay has appointed another committee, called the Group 4 Work Group named after a recommendation in the 2018 Comprehensive Plan, to look at where the boundary could be expanded if and when the city votes to expand it.

Much of that discussion has focused on areas where there is sewer service or where it’s cost effective to add sewer service. During a Tuesday Aug. 23 Group 4 meeting, the group looked at areas in the Winchester Road area between Winchester and Interstate 64 as well as areas around or near the Interstate 74 and Athens Boonesboro Road interchange.

No final decision has been made by the Group 4 Work Group. The next meeting is Sept. 5.

That group is expected to make final recommendations likely in late October before the Urban County Planning Commission begins debate on the new comprehensive plan, which determines what types of development can go where and can determine if the city’s growth boundary should be moved.

Beth Musgrave has covered government and politics for the Herald-Leader for more than a decade. A graduate of Northwestern University, she has worked as a reporter in Kentucky, Indiana, Mississippi, Illinois and Washington D.C.